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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Monday 2017-09-25 · 20:30 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DAL
40.0%
ARI
60.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.130 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DAL 20
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DAL

Chidobe Awuzie CB Out Hamstring
Nolan Carroll CB Out Concussion
Anthony Hitchens LB Out Knee
Stephen Paea DT Questionable Knee
Brice Butler WR Questionable Ankle
Terrance Williams WR Questionable Ankle

ARI

John Brown WR Out Quadricep
D.J. Humphries T Out Knee
Deone Bucannon LB Questionable Ankle
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Ribs
Mike Iupati G Questionable Tricep
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 28
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 TD ARI (10:06) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 13-Ja.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Lawrence]. DAL 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 01:16 TD DAL (1:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – ARI 7
  • Q3 08:42 TD DAL (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-C.Jones]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DAL 13 – ARI 7
  • Q3 03:21 TD ARI (3:21) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – ARI 13
  • Q4 12:03 TD DAL (12:03) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-B.Butler for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Golden]. DAL 20 – ARI 14
  • Q4 06:40 FG ARI (6:40) 4-P.Dawson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. DAL 21 – ARI 17
  • Q4 05:03 TD DAL (5:03) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:17) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to ARI 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-K.Williams ran ob at ARI 20 for 4 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (14:12) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:44) 6-C.Jones punts 29 yards to ARI 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-51-K.Wilber.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%

    (9:36) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to DAL 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer to ARI 33 for 21 yards (35-E.Penny).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%

    (12:23) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to ARI 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:44) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to 50, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer to ARI 46 for 4 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:53) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:54) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to ARI 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:16) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to ARI 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:55) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to DAL 48, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer to 50 for 2 yards (46-A.Brewer).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (6:40) 4-P.Dawson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:15) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to DAL 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer pushed ob at DAL 38 for 16 yards (27-T.Branch).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:05) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to ARI 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 13 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Gresham (31-B.Jones).