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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model