Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 89

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(4:54) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to ARI 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.59 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model