Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 95

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer to ARI 33 for 21 yards (35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -3.78 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 95, worth -5.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model