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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 2

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Gresham (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model