4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to 50, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Switzer to ARI 46 for 4 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.79 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 89, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model