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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to ARI 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-K.Williams ran ob at ARI 20 for 4 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model