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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to ARI 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model