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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

OAK
48.8%
DEN
51.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Matt McGloin (LV): -0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LV starting Matt McGloin in place of Derek Carr)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 19
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

OAK

Derek Carr QB Out Ankle
Austin Howard T Out Shoulder
Karl Joseph S Doubtful Toe
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Shoulder
Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Ankle
Andre Holmes WR Questionable Shoulder
Stacy McGee DT Questionable Groin
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Ankle
Jalen Richard RB Questionable Shoulder
Perry Riley LB Questionable Hamstring
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

DEN

A.J. Derby TE Out Concussion
T.J. Ward S Out Concussion
DeMarcus Ware LB Out Back
Kayvon Webster CB Out Concussion
Derek Wolfe DE Out Neck
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 6
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 TD DEN (10:22) 23-D.Booker right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 11:33 FG DEN (11:33) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. OAK 0 – DEN 10
  • Q2 01:54 TD DEN (1:54) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 23-D.Booker for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – DEN 16
  • Q3 08:19 TD DEN (8:19) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 85-V.Green for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – DEN 23
  • Q3 03:19 TD LV (3:19) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 8-C.Cook pass deep left to 89-A.Cooper for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:08) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 42, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 30-J.Richard. PENALTY on LV-23-D.McDonald, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 42.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:22) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to DEN 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (11:33) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:30) 7-M.King punts 63 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 16 for 11 yards (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 25, Center-45-T.Gafford. 30-J.Richard to LV 34 for 9 yards (16-B.Fowler).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:28) 7-M.King punts 64 yards to DEN 3, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 11 for 8 yards (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:16) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to DEN 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 16 for 6 yards (41-B.Trawick).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LV 28, Center-45-T.Gafford. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for 9 yards (49-Q.Gause). DEN-50-Z.Anderson was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 20%

    (2:06) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 37, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 73%

    (13:26) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:00) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 20%

    (8:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 15, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-52-C.Nelson. PENALTY on DEN-39-T.Nixon, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at LV 15.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

    (3:57) (Punt formation) 40-J.Thompson up the middle to LV 34 for 2 yards (47-J.Cowser).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%

    (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-C.Cook sacked at LV 44 for -7 yards (57-D.Watson). FUMBLES (57-D.Watson) [58-V.Miller], recovered by LV-71-M.Watson at LV 44. 71-M.Watson to LV 44 for no gain (57-D.Watson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 61%

    (1:24) 20-J.Forsett up the middle to LV 33 for 2 yards (41-B.Trawick).