Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(6:08) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model