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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-C.Cook sacked at LV 44 for -7 yards (57-D.Watson). FUMBLES (57-D.Watson) [58-V.Miller], recovered by LV-71-M.Watson at LV 44. 71-M.Watson to LV 44 for no gain (57-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.24 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model