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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 78

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 25, Center-45-T.Gafford. 30-J.Richard to LV 34 for 9 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.29 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP