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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP