Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 35
Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 6
What Actually Happened
(1:24) 20-J.Forsett up the middle to LV 33 for 2 yards (41-B.Trawick).
The Three Options
GO
+1.29 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.57 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.04 EP
KICK
+0.78 EP
- 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
