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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 52

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 15, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-52-C.Nelson. PENALTY on DEN-39-T.Nixon, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at LV 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP