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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 36

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Punt formation) 40-J.Thompson up the middle to LV 34 for 2 yards (47-J.Cowser).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.22 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model