Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 84

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 42, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 30-J.Richard. PENALTY on LV-23-D.McDonald, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.03 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model