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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
48.8%
KC
51.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): +0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than TEN
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.087 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

Sean Spence LB Out Ankle
David Bass LB Questionable Groin
Karl Klug DT Questionable Achilles
Jurrell Casey DT Questionable Foot

KC

Phillip Gaines CB Out Knee
Derrick Johnson LB Out Achilles
Justin Houston LB Questionable Illness
Kendall Reyes DE Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 19
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 TD KC (11:55) (Shotgun) 10-T.Hill left guard for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 04:32 TD KC (4:32) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 12:05 TD TEN (12:05) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 6 – KC 14
  • Q2 00:17 FG KC (:17) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. TEN 7 – KC 17
  • Q4 11:59 FG TEN (11:59) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 10 – KC 17
  • Q4 03:14 TD TEN (3:14) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – KC 17
  • Q4 00:05 FG TEN (:05) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 19 – KC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:44) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to KC 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 26. 10-T.Hill to KC 26 for no gain (52-A.Wallace).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:45) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to KC 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill to KC 35 for no gain (26-A.Andrews).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:44) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to TEN 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 13 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 32 for 16 yards (51-F.Zombo).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (3:07) 32-S.Ware up the middle to TEN 1 for no gain (31-K.Byard).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (1:52) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to TEN 48, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill to TEN 45 for 3 yards (50-N.Palmer; 26-A.Andrews).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 61%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to TEN 20 for 16 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (:17) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 59%

    (11:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:22) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to KC 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to TEN 28, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

    (11:59) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to TEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (3:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 29-D.Murray to KC 1 for 15 yards (53-R.Wilson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to TEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.