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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 32-S.Ware up the middle to TEN 1 for no gain (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model