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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to TEN 28, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model