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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 29-D.Murray to KC 1 for 15 yards (53-R.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.87 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP