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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:44) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to TEN 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 13 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model