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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to TEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.38 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model