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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 21

Tennessee Titans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model