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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to KC 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.82 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP