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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model