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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 16:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

OAK
46.8%
SD
53.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • LV on 3 more days rest than LAC
  • LV offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
SD 23
Projected margin: SD by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

OAK

Shilique Calhoun LB Out Knee
Karl Joseph S Out Toe
Stacy McGee DT Out Ankle
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Shoulder
Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Finger
Darius Latham DE Questionable Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Perry Riley LB Questionable Hamstring
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

SD

Melvin Gordon RB Out Hip
Craig Mager CB Doubtful Shoulder
Orlando Franklin G Questionable Rib
Jeremy Butler WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 19
–
SD 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 TD LAC (10:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – SD 6
  • Q1 04:58 FG LV (4:58) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – SD 7
  • Q2 01:33 FG LAC (1:33) 2-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. OAK 3 – SD 10
  • Q2 00:27 TD LV (:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree (42-T.Williams). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – SD 10
  • Q3 10:52 FG LV (10:52) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 13 – SD 10
  • Q3 06:19 TD LAC (6:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 86-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – SD 16
  • Q4 08:44 FG LV (8:44) 11-S.Janikowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 16 – SD 16
  • Q4 02:42 FG LV (2:42) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 19 – SD 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 80%

    (4:58) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:25) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LV 29, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for 8 yards (56-K.Toomer). PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 37.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (15:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to LV 37, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:22) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to LV 49, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (35-R.McClain, 58-To.Williams).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%

    (5:35) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (1:33) 2-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (10:52) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:18) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to LAC 20, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:43) 8-D.Kaser punts 69 yards to LV 3, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:06) 7-M.King punts 64 yards to LAC 7, Center-59-J.Condo. 89-I.Burse to LAC 18 for 11 yards (56-D.Bates). PENALTY on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:44) 11-S.Janikowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

    (2:42) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 91 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 15-D.Inman INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson [51-B.Irvin] at LAC 28. 27-R.Nelson to LAC 13 for 15 yards (15-D.Inman).