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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model