Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LV 29, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for 8 yards (56-K.Toomer). PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model