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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP