4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to LV 37, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.90 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP