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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 91

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to LV 49, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (35-R.McClain, 58-To.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model