4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.41 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model