Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 91

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 15-D.Inman INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson [51-B.Irvin] at LAC 28. 27-R.Nelson to LAC 13 for 15 yards (15-D.Inman).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.85 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 91, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.09 EP