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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(:43) 8-D.Kaser punts 69 yards to LV 3, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model