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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Monday 2016-12-19 · 20:30 FedExField, Landover US 🥶 Cold Spread 7.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

CAR
27.2%
WAS
72.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.207 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.252 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.026 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
WAS 28
Projected margin: WAS by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CAR

Charles Johnson DE Out Hamstring
Daryl Williams T Out Ankle
Kelvin Benjamin WR Questionable Back
Luke Kuechly LB Questionable Concussion
David Mayo LB Questionable Concussion
Cam Newton QB Questionable right Shoulder

WAS

Su'a Cravens S Out Upper Arm
Will Compton LB Doubtful Knee
John Sullivan C Questionable Illness
Will Blackmon S Questionable Concussion
Mack Brown RB Questionable Concussion
Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Groin
Spencer Long C Questionable Concussion
Chris Baker DE Questionable Ankle
Ryan Kerrigan LB Questionable Knee
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Shoulder
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 26
–
WAS 15

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:45 FG CAR (12:45) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 06:23 FG WAS (6:23) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 3 – WAS 3
  • Q1 01:57 TD CAR (1:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – WAS 3
  • Q2 12:26 FG CAR (12:26) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 13 – WAS 3
  • Q2 03:54 TD WAS (3:54) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 32-R.Kelley left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – WAS 9
  • Q3 14:08 TD CAR (14:08) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 35-M.Tolbert for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – WAS 9
  • Q3 05:11 FG CAR (5:11) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 23 – WAS 9
  • Q4 14:13 FG WAS (14:13) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 23 – WAS 12
  • Q4 03:48 FG WAS (3:48) 3-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 23 – WAS 15
  • Q4 01:12 FG CAR (1:12) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 26 – WAS 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (12:45) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:55) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to CAR 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 27 for 3 yards (50-M.Spaight).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:20) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to WAS 33, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 37 for 4 yards (10-C.Brown).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (6:23) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (12:26) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:33) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to CAR 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 34 for 17 yards (55-N.Moody).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:31) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to CAR 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 34 for 8 yards (29-D.Ihenacho).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 51%

    (:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 24 yards to WAS 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-22-M.Griffin.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 42 for 19 yards (52-T.Garvin). WAS-47-Q.Dunbar was injured during the play. He is Out. 47- Dunbar is being evaluated for a concussion

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (11:03) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 22 for 5 yards (25-L.Young).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:12) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (5:11) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 91%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder to CAR 10 for 8 yards (33-T.Boston).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (14:13) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%

    (10:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to WAS 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:00) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to CAR 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 45 for 12 yards (50-M.Spaight).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (5:41) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (3:48) 3-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (1:12) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.