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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 69

Washington Commanders 9 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to CAR 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 34 for 8 yards (29-D.Ihenacho).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.55 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP