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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 69

Washington Commanders 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to CAR 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 27 for 3 yards (50-M.Spaight).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.15 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model