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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 13 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 24 yards to WAS 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-22-M.Griffin.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.13 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP