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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 70

Washington Commanders 9 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP