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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to WAS 33, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 37 for 4 yards (10-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model