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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 16

Washington Commanders 12 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 3-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model