Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 83

Washington Commanders 12 – Carolina Panthers 23

(10:00) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to CAR 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 45 for 12 yards (50-M.Spaight).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.40 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model