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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to CAR 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 34 for 17 yards (55-N.Moody).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model