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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

NO
47.0%
TB
53.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.123 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.175 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NO

Shiloh Keo S Questionable Hamstring
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Shoulder
Max Unger C Questionable Foot
Terron Armstead T Questionable Quadricep
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Toe
Senio Kelemete G Questionable Hip
Daniel Lasco RB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Thomas WR Questionable Foot

TB

Chris Conte S Out Chest
Demar Dotson T Out Concussion
Luke Stocker TE Out Ankle
Adam Humphries WR Out Concussion
Evan Smith C Questionable Knee
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 11
–
TB 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:10 FG TB (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. NO 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:55 TD TB (14:55) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 08:30 FG TB (8:30) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. NO 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 05:33 FG NO (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – TB 13
  • Q2 05:27 SAF NO (5:27) 22-D.Martin up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (99-P.Kruger). The Replay Official reviewed the safety ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 5 – TB 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG NO (:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 8 – TB 13
  • Q3 03:39 FG NO (3:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 11 – TB 13
  • Q4 12:50 FG TB (12:50) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. NO 11 – TB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 20%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:16) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TB 22, Center-47-J.Drescher. 28-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at TB 29 for 7 yards (29-J.Kuhn).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:38) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TB 29, Center-47-J.Drescher. 28-V.Hargreaves to TB 25 for -4 yards (36-D.Lasco).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 88%

    (8:30) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%

    (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 9-D.Brees up the middle to TB 12 for 2 yards (91-R.Ayers).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (3:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (12:50) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%

    (6:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to NO 1, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-45-A.Cross.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (5:54) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Drescher. 28-V.Hargreaves to 50 for 12 yards (54-N.Stupar).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 61%

    (2:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NO 3, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left intended for 83-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 37-K.Tandy at NO 47. 37-K.Tandy to NO 47 for no gain (83-W.Snead).