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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 8 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP