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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New Orleans Saints 11

What Actually Happened

(12:50) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP