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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model