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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 14
New Orleans Saints 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 9-D.Brees up the middle to TB 12 for 2 yards (91-R.Ayers).
The Three Options
GO
+2.95 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.83 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP
KICK
+1.61 EP
- 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
