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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:30) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.68 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP